Please note that transaction records for September 2020 for Wayne County, MI are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate a valid September 2020 update of the Detroit S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices.
However, there are not a sufficient number of records for October 2020 and November 2020 for Detroit. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic are unable to generate a valid Detroit index value for the months of October and November. When the sale transactions data fully resume and sufficient data are collected, the Detroit index values for the month(s) with missing updates will be calculated.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.5% annual gain in November, up from 8.4% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.8%, up from 7.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 9.1% year-over-year gain, up from 8.0% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in November. Phoenix led the way with a 13.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.7% increase and San Diego with a 12.3% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2020 versus the year ending October 2020.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The U.S. National Index posted a 1.1% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.1% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in November. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.4%. In November, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before and after seasonal adjustment.
NALYSIS
"The trend of accelerating home prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its sixth month with November's emphatic report," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The National Composite Index gained 9.5% relative to its level a year ago, accelerating from October's 8.4% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 8.8% and 9.1%, respectively) also rose more rapidly in November than they had done in October. The housing market's strength was once again broadly-based: all 19 cities for which we have November data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in November than they had gained in the 12 months ended in October.
"As COVID-related restrictions began to grip the economy last spring, their effect on housing prices was unclear. Price growth decelerated in May and June before beginning a steady climb upward. November's report continues that acceleration in a particularly impressive manner. The National Composite last matched this month's 9.5% growth rate in February 2014, more than six and a half years ago. From the perspective of more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, November's 9.5% year-over-year change ranks near the top decile of all monthly reports.
"Recent data are consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This may represent a true secular shift in housing demand, or may simply represent an acceleration of moves that would have taken place over the next several years anyway. Future data will be required to address that question.
"Phoenix's 13.8% increase led all cities for the 18th consecutive month. Seattle (+12.7%) and San Diego (+12.3%) took the silver and bronze medals once again. Prices were strongest in the West (+10.1%) and Southwest (+9.7%) regions, with the historically lagging Northeast (+9.3%) also turning in an impressive month."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 232.38 | 73.4% | 25.9% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 238.48 | 77.9% | 15.5% |
| 10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 251.65 | 71.8% | 11.2% |
