YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in October, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.7%, down from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.0% year-over-year gain, down from 5.2% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, San Francisco and Phoenix reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In October, Las Vegas led the way with a 12.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with a 7.9% increase and Phoenix with a 7.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2018 versus the year ending September 2018.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.1% in October. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not report any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.5% month-over-month increase in October. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite posted 0.5% and 0.4% month-over-month increases, respectively. In October, nine of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Home prices in most parts of the U.S. rose in October from September and from a year earlier," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The combination of higher mortgage rates and higher home prices rising faster than incomes and wages means fewer people can afford to buy a house. Fixed rate 30-year mortgages are currently 4.75%, up from 4% one year earlier. Home prices are up 54%, or 40% excluding inflation, since they bottomed in 2012. Reduced affordability is slowing sales of both new and existing single family homes. Sales peaked in November 2017 and have drifted down since then.
"The largest gains were seen in Las Vegas where home prices rose 12.8% in the last 12 months, compared to an average of 5.3% across the other 19 cities. This is a marked change from the housing collapse in 2006-12 when Las Vegas was the hardest hit city with prices down 62%. After the last recession, Las Vegas diversified its economy by adding a medical school, becoming a regional center for health care, and attracting high technology employers. Employment is increasing 3% annually, twice as fast as the national rate."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak
| Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 206.03 | 53.8% | 11.6% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 213.89 | 59.5% | 3.6% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 227.65 | 55.4% | 0.6% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for October 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| October 2018 | October/September | September/August | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 148.46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 6.0% |
| Boston | 216.56 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4% |
| Charlotte | 159.07 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 5.0% |
| Chicago | 144.56 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 3.3% |
| Cleveland | 123.85 | -0.5% | 0.3% | 4.8% |
| Dallas | 187.45 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| Denver | 216.16 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 6.9% |
| Detroit | 124.84 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.0% |
| Las Vegas | 190.00 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 12.8% |
| Los Angeles | 283.03 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 5.5% |
| Miami | 238.78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| Minneapolis | 173.32 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 5.9% |
| New York | 201.41 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 3.1% |
| Phoenix | 186.87 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 7.7% |
| Portland | 233.73 | -0.6% | -0.1% | 4.9% |
| San Diego | 255.76 | -0.1% | -0.4% | 3.8% |
| San Francisco | 267.24 | -0.7% | 0.0% | 7.9% |
| Seattle | 247.66 | -1.1% | -1.3% | 7.3% |
| Tampa | 213.26 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 6.4% |
| Washington | 227.97 | 0.0% | -0.2% | 2.9% |
| Composite-10 | 227.65 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.7% |
| Composite-20 | 213.89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| U.S. National | 206.03 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5.5% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through October 2018 |
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