YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in July, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.5%, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.1% increase and San Francisco with a 10.8% increase. Five of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2018 versus the year ending June 2018.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in July. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in July. The 10-City Composite remained flat and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% month-over-month increase. Eighteen of 20 cities reported increases in June before seasonal adjustment, while 13 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Rising homes prices are beginning to catch up with housing," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Year-over-year gains and monthly seasonally adjusted increases both slowed in July for the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Index and the 10 and 20-City Composite indices. The slowing is widespread: 15 of 20 cities saw smaller monthly increases in July 2018 than in July 2017. Sales of existing single family homes have dropped each month for the last six months and are now at the level of July 2016. Housing starts rose in August due to strong gains in multifamily construction. The index of housing affordability has worsened substantially since the start of the year.
"Since home prices bottomed in 2012, 12 of the 20 cities tracked by the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller indices have reached new highs before adjusting for inflation. The eight that remain underwater include the four cities which led the home price boom: Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All are enjoying rising prices, especially Las Vegas which currently has the largest year-over-year increases of all 20 cities. The other cities where prices are still not over their earlier peaks are Washington DC, Chicago, New York and Atlanta. "
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak
| Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 205.35 | 53.2% | 11.2% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 213.76 | 59.4% | 3.5% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 227.05 | 55.0% | 0.3% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for July 2018. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| July 2018 | July/June | June/May | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 147.56 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.8% |
| Boston | 216.62 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 6.0% |
| Charlotte | 157.99 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 5.6% |
| Chicago | 145.11 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 3.0% |
| Cleveland | 123.57 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 5.7% |
| Dallas | 187.47 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 5.0% |
| Denver | 217.11 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 8.0% |
| Detroit | 124.24 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 6.2% |
| Las Vegas | 186.06 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 13.7% |
| Los Angeles | 283.20 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 6.4% |
| Miami | 237.73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 5.0% |
| Minneapolis | 173.31 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 6.0% |
| New York | 198.02 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.4% |
| Phoenix | 183.54 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 7.5% |
| Portland | 235.41 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 5.6% |
| San Diego | 258.55 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 6.2% |
| San Francisco | 270.10 | 0.6% | 0.5% | 10.8% |
| Seattle | 259.01 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 12.1% |
| Tampa | 210.42 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 6.8% |
| Washington | 228.78 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| Composite-10 | 227.05 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| Composite-20 | 213.76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 5.9% |
| U.S. National | 205.35 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 6.0% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through July 2018 |
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