YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain for July, down from a 5.5% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.8%, down from a 7.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, dropping from a 6.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in July, followed by Las Vegas and Los Angeles with annual increases of 8.2% and 7.2%, respectively. Portland held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching the same 0.8% annual increase in July as last month.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite upward trends continued to decelerate from last month, with pre-seasonality adjustment increases of 0.1% for the national index, and both the 20-City and 10-City Composites remained unchanged on the month.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while both the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.3%.
ANALYSIS
"Accounting for seasonality of home purchases, we have witnessed 14 consecutive record highs in our National Index," says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. "While the S&P 500 has achieved thirty-nine record highs and the S&P GSCI Gold TR hit thirty-five record highs, housing is following a similar trajectory. The growth has come at a cost, with all but two markets decelerating last month, eight markets seeing monthly declines, and the slowest annual growth nationally in 2024. Overall, the indices continue to grow at a rate that exceeds long-run averages after accounting for inflation."
Luke continued, "We continue to observe out-performance in most low-price tiers in the market on a 3 and 5-year horizon. The low-price tier of Tampa was the best performing market nationally with 5-year performance of 88%. The New York market was the best market annually, posting a gain of 8.9%. New York's low-tier index, which include home values up to $533,000, helped drive that growth with 10.8% annual gains. Over 5-years, markets such as New York and Atlanta, saw low price tiered indices outperforming their market by as much as 20% and 18%, respectively. The relative outperformance of low-price tiered indices has both benefited first time homebuyers as well as made it more difficult to for those looking for a stater home. The opposite is happening in California which has the most expensive high-price tiers in the nation, all well over $1 million. The rich are getting richer in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco where their high price-tiered indices outperformed on a 1- and 3-year basis.
Regionally, the Northeast remains the best performing market, with New York the top performer for 3-months running, followed by the Midwest region. All markets in the Northeast and Midwest recorded an all-time high. The south reported the slowest gains regionally but includes five of the seven best performing markets since 2020," according to Luke.
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | ||||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak
| Level | From Trough
| From Peak
| |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4 % | 325.78 | 143.1 % | 76.5 % | |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1 % | 335.77 | 150.4 % | 62.6 % | |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3 % | 353.24 | 141.2 % | 56.1 % | |
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