Mr. DeMarco continued, “Since our last report to you, we were informed that certain Kratos satellite program related software deliverables expected to be acquired by an existing government customer have been delayed to a future period and we were informed by a customer that funding is no longer available for the continuation of a certain, non-Valkyrie related drone program we have been working on, both which were previously forecast as significant contributors to our fourth quarter 2022 financial forecast. We have also determined that as a result of the continuing incredibly tight labor market for qualified machinists and skilled production personnel, including those with security clearances, that we will not achieve by this fiscal year end our previous forecast net increase headcount target to execute on our backlog and maintain our indirect rates. We have reflected the impact of each of these and other items, including inflation, supply chain, etc., in today’s third quarter financial report and our updated fiscal 2022 forecast.”
Mr. DeMarco concluded, “We have taken action to address these matters, including continuing to incorporate in our new proposals and contract awards cost and rate increases to address the inflationary environment, including specifically as related to higher labor rates and we have adjusted the organization in certain areas to address customer related delays, funding and other issues. By taking these actions now, having a 1.2 to 1.0 LTM book to bill ratio with multiple large, new programs ramping and maintaining a record combined backlog and opportunity pipeline, we continue to forecast future growth for the Company, including base case full year 2023 over 2022 10 percent revenue growth and increased margins, with potential accelerated growth opportunities in the tactical drone, space, satellite, rocket and hypersonic system areas.”
Financial Guidance
Our fourth quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 financial guidance we are providing today includes our current forecasted business mix, and our assumptions, including as related to: employee sourcing, hiring and retention; manufacturing, production and supply chain disruptions; and parts shortages and related continued significant cost and price increases, including for employees, materials and components that are impacting the industry and Kratos. The range of our expected fourth quarter 2022 revenues includes assumptions of forecasted execution including the number of new qualified personnel expected to be retained to execute on our programs and contracts, as well as expected contract awards. Our revised Fiscal Year 2022 cash flow guidance also includes continued advanced purchases of inventory in an attempt to mitigate supply chain disruptions, which are not currently expected to be converted to cash through the sales process until the second half of 2023.
On October 1, 2022, the U.S. Federal Government began operating under a Continuing Resolution Authorization (CRA) through at least December 16, 2022, with no Federal Fiscal 2023 Budget or DoD budget being in place. Under a CRA, federal spending and its composition is substantially held consistent with the previous year’s budget, with no new contract awards, no increased production or spending on existing programs and no transition from development to production contracts, or from low-rate initial production to full rate production being allowed, all of which may impact Kratos and our current fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 financial expectations. The longer a CRA period is extended, the greater the impact on the industry, our customers and Kratos.
Throughout the third and fourth quarter of 2022, our industry and Kratos continue to experience the effects of continuing supply chain disruptions and significant cost increases and inflation, including on our employees, consultants, subcontractors, vendors, suppliers, customers, etc., and an acute labor shortage of qualified personnel, including those requiring security clearances, to perform on programs and contracts.
We expect this difficult operating environment and its impact on the industry, our operations and our ability to forecast to continue for the foreseeable future. Following is our fourth quarter and revised full year 2022 guidance along with a reconciliation from our full year 2022 guidance provided in August 2022 to our current guidance range.
| Current Guidance Range | ||||
| $M | Q422 | FY22 | ||
| Revenues | $231 - $251 | $880 - $900 | ||
| R&D | $8 - $10 | $35 - $38 | ||
| Operating Income (Loss) | $1 - $5 | $(3) - $2 | ||
| Depreciation | $7 | $23 - $25 | ||
| Amortization | $3 - $4 | $10 - $11 | ||
| Stock Based Compensation | $6 - $7 | $26 - $27 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | $18 - $23 | $70 - $75 | ||
| Operating Cash Flow Use | $(25 - $35) | |||
| Capital Expenditures | $45 - $50 | |||
| Free Cash Flow Use | ($70 - $80) | |||
| Guidance Reconciliation Table | ||||
| Adjusted | ||||
| $M | Revenues | EBITDA | ||
| August 2022 Range | $890 - $930 | $80 - $85 | ||
| C5ISR impact due to labor and supply delays | $0 - $13 | $3 | ||
| Funding for non-Valkyrie related drone program | $5 - $8 | $2 | ||
| Delay of satellite program software deliverables | $5 - $6 | $4 | ||
| Supply chain delays | $0 - $3 | $1 | ||
| November 2022 Range | $880 - $900 | $70 - $75 | ||
Management will discuss the Company’s third quarter 2022 financial results, as well as its fourth quarter and full year 2022 guidance on a conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. Pacific (5:00 p.m. Eastern) today. The call will be available at
www.kratosdefense.com . Participants may register for the call using this
Online Form . Upon registration, all telephone participants will receive the dial-in number along with a unique PIN that can be used to access the call. For those who cannot access the live broadcast, a replay will be available on Kratos’ website.
