Manufacturing PMI® at 60.7%; December 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (7); Aluminum Products (3); Brass Products (2); Copper (7); Corrugate (3); Corrugate Boxes (2); Crude Oil; Electrical Components; Electronic Components; Freight (2); Isocyanates; Labor — Temporary; Linerboard; Lumber (6); Ocean Freight; Oil-Base Lubricants; Packaging Supplies; Paper Products; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) — Gloves; Phosphates; Plastic Resins (4); Polyethylene Resins (3); Polyurethane; Polypropylene (6); Polyvinyl Chloride (3);  Solvents; Soybean Products (3); Steel (5); Steel — High Carbon; Steel — Cold Rolled (4); Steel — Hot Rolled (4); Steel Products (4); Steel — Scrap; Steel — Stainless (2); and Wood — Pallets.

Commodities Down in Price
None.

Commodities in Short Supply
Aluminum; Aluminum Cans; Corrugate Boxes (2); Electrical Components (3); Electronic Components; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) — Gloves (10); PPE — Masks (2); Semiconductors; Steel; Steel — Galvanized; and Steel — Hot Rolled (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

DECEMBER 2020 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

Manufacturing PMI®
Manufacturing grew in December, as the Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.7 percent, 3.2 percentage points higher than the November reading of 57.5 percent. "The Manufacturing PMI® signaled a continued rebuilding of economic activity in December, with four of five contributing subindexes in strong growth territory. All six of the biggest manufacturing industries — Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded. The New Orders and Production indexes continued to expand strongly. The Supplier Deliveries Index continued to reflect suppliers' difficulties in maintaining delivery rates, due to factory labor-safety issues and transportation challenges. All 10 subindexes were positive for the period; a reading of 'too low' for Customers' Inventories is considered a positive for future production," says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.8 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew in December for the eighth consecutive month following contractions in March, April, and May. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the Manufacturing PMI® for December (60.7 percent) corresponds to a 5.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore.

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month

Manufacturing
PMI®


Month

Manufacturing
PMI®

Dec 2020

60.7


Jun 2020

52.6

Nov 2020

57.5


May 2020

43.1

Oct 2020

59.3


Apr 2020

41.5

Sep 2020

55.4


Mar 2020

49.1

Aug 2020

56.0


Feb 2020

50.1

Jul 2020

54.2


Jan 2020

50.9

Average for 12 months – 52.5

High – 60.7

Low – 41.5

New Orders
ISM®'s New Orders Index registered 67.9 percent in December, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the 65.1 percent reported in November. This indicates that new orders grew for the seventh consecutive month and the sixth consecutive month above 60 percent. "All six of the largest manufacturing sectors — Petroleum & Coal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products — expanded," says Fiore. A New Orders Index above 52.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the 13 that reported growth in new orders in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a decline in new orders in December are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.

New Orders

%Higher

%Same

%Lower

Net

Index

Dec 2020

40.3

45.1

14.6

+25.7

67.9

Nov 2020

35.9

50.1

14.0

+21.9

65.1

Oct 2020

40.3

49.2

10.5

+29.8

67.9

Sep 2020

35.2

45.9

18.9

+16.3

60.2


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