YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual gain in January, up from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, up from 2.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.1% year-over-year gain, up from 2.8% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In January, Phoenix led the way with a 6.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by 5.1% increases in Seattle and Tampa. Fourteen of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending January 2020 versus the year ending December 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index and 20-City Composite were flat month-over-month, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease before seasonal adjustment in January. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted 0.3% increases. In January, 10 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 18 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The trend of stable growth established in 2019 continued into the first month of the new year," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The National Composite Index rose by 3.9% in January 2020, and the 10- and 20-City Composites also advanced (by 2.6% and 3.1% respectively). Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 14 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices. As has been the case since mid-2019, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the National, 10-City, and 20-City Composites all rose at a faster rate in January than they had done in December.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the eighth consecutive month, with a gain of 6.9% for January. Seattle, Tampa, and San Diego all rose by 5.1%. Housing prices were particularly strong in the West and South, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.
"It is important to bear in mind that today's report covers real estate transactions closed during the month of January. The COVID-19 pandemic did not begin to take hold in the U.S. until late February, and thus whatever impact it will have on housing prices is not reflected in today's data."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.43 | 58.5% | 15.1% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.62 | 63.1% | 5.9% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 231.27 | 57.9% | 2.2% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2020. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| January 2020 | January/December | December/November | 1-Year | ||||
Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) | ||||
Atlanta | 155.03 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 4.5% | ||||
Boston | 224.03 | -0.3% | 0.0% | 4.5% | ||||
Charlotte | 167.26 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 4.9% | ||||
Chicago | 142.36 | -0.9% | -0.2% | 0.6% | ||||
Cleveland | 126.34 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 3.9% | ||||
Dallas | 193.05 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 2.6% | ||||
Denver | 223.69 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.8% | ||||
Detroit | 127.37 | -0.1% | -0.2% | 3.5% | ||||
Las Vegas | 195.84 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.2% | ||||
Los Angeles | 289.80 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 3.4% | ||||
Miami | 247.37 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.9% | ||||
Minneapolis | 177.35 | -0.7% | -0.6% | 3.4% | ||||
New York | 202.70 | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | ||||
Phoenix | 200.01 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 6.9% | ||||
Portland | 240.95 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 4.1% | ||||
San Diego | 264.04 | 0.3% | 0.0% | 5.1% | ||||
San Francisco | 265.46 | -0.5% | 0.1% | 3.0% | ||||
Seattle | 256.09 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 5.1% | ||||
Tampa | 225.29 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 5.1% | ||||
Washington | 234.86 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.5% | ||||
Composite-10 | 231.27 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 2.6% | ||||
Composite-20 | 218.62 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | ||||
U.S. National | 212.43 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.9% | ||||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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Data through January 2020 |
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Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
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| January '20/December '19 Change (%) | December/November Change (%) | ||||||
Metropolitan Area | NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||||
Atlanta | 0.1% | 0.7% | -0.1% | 0.3% | ||||
Boston | -0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.6% | ||||
Charlotte | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||||
Chicago | -0.9% | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.4% | ||||
Cleveland | -0.3% | 0.2% | -0.7% | -0.1% | ||||
Dallas | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.2% | ||||
Denver | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.3% | ||||
Detroit | -0.1% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 0.5% | ||||
Las Vegas | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||
Los Angeles | 0.3% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 0.1% | ||||
Miami | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||
Minneapolis | -0.7% | 0.1% | -0.6% | 0.2% | ||||
New York | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||
Phoenix | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | ||||
Portland | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | ||||
San Diego | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | ||||
San Francisco | -0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | ||||
Seattle | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | ||||
Tampa | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | ||||
Washington | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | ||||
Composite-10 | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||||
Composite-20 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||||
U.S. National | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | ||||
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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Data through January 2020 |
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For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.
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The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.
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