YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in August, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, down from 1.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain, no change from the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte, and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In August, Phoenix led the way with a 6.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 4.5% increase and Tampa with a 4.3% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2019 versus the year ending July 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2% in August. The 10-City and 20-City Composites did not post any gains for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in August. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.2% decrease. In August, 11 of 20 cities reported increases both before seasonal adjustment while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index trend remained intact with a year-over-year price change of 3.2%," says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "However, a shift in regional leadership may be underway beneath the headline national index.
"Phoenix saw an increase in its YOY price change to 6.3% and retained its leading position. However, Las Vegas dropped from number two to number eight among the cities of the 20-City Composite, falling from a 4.7% YOY change in July to only 3.3% in August. Meanwhile, the Southeast region included three of the top four cities. Charlotte, Tampa, and Atlanta all recorded solid YOY performance with price changes of 4.5%, 4.3%, and 4.0%, respectively. In the Northwest, Seattle's YOY change turned positive (0.7%) after three consecutive months of negative YOY price changes. The 10-City Composite YOY price change declined slightly from July to 1.5%, while the 20-City Composite YOY price change remained steady at 2.0%. San Francisco was the only city to record a negative YOY price change (-0.1%)."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.06 | 58.3% | 14.9% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.14 | 62.7% | 5.6% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 230.83 | 57.6% | 2.0% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for August 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| August 2019 | August/July | July/June | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 153.81 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 4.0% |
| Boston | 224.74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.9% |
| Charlotte | 165.40 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 4.5% |
| Chicago | 147.01 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| Cleveland | 127.75 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.9% |
| Dallas | 192.63 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.8% |
| Denver | 223.34 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Detroit | 129.44 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| Las Vegas | 194.37 | -0.2% | 0.6% | 3.3% |
| Los Angeles | 286.04 | 0.0% | -0.3% | 1.0% |
| Miami | 244.91 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| Minneapolis | 180.60 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.9% |
| New York | 201.29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| Phoenix | 195.76 | 0.9% | 0.7% | 6.3% |
| Portland | 241.17 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| San Diego | 263.23 | -0.2% | 0.7% | 2.3% |
| San Francisco | 268.81 | -0.5% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
| Seattle | 255.35 | -0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Tampa | 220.58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 4.3% |
| Washington | 234.67 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 2.7% |
| Composite-10 | 230.83 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| Composite-20 | 218.14 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| U.S. National | 212.06 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 3.2% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through August 2019 |
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