NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2022 — (PRNewswire) — S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 9.2% annual gain in October, down from 10.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 8.0%, down from 9.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 8.6% year-over-year gain, down from 10.4% in the previous month.

Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Miami led the way with a 21% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 20.5% increase, and Charlotte in third with a 15% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending October 2022 versus the year ending September 2022. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.5% month-over-month decrease in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%.

In October, all 20 cities reported declines before and after seasonal adjustments.

ANALYSIS

"October 2022 marked the fourth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "For example, the National Composite Index fell -0.5% for the month, reflecting a -3.0% decline since the market peaked in June 2022. We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand -4.6% below their June peaks after October declines of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively. These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 9.2%, which is in the top quintile of historical performance levels.

"Despite considerable regional differences, all 20 cities in our October report reflect these trends of short-term decline and medium-term deceleration. Prices declined in every city in October, with a median change of -0.9%. Year-over-year price gains in all 20 cities were lower in October than they had been in September; the median year-over-year increase across the 20 cities was 8.3%.

"October's best-performing cities were Miami (+21.0% year-over-year) and Tampa (+20.5%), with Charlotte (+15.0%) edging Atlanta (+14.9%) for third place. The Southeast (+17.9%) and South (+17.0%) were the strongest regions by far, with gains more than double those of the Northeast, Midwest, and West. The two weakest performers were San Francisco (up only +0.6% year-over-year) and Seattle (+4.5%). San Francisco and Seattle peaked in May 2022, and both have declined by more than -10% since then.

"As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken."

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

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