YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in February, up from 19.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, up from 17.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 20.2% year-over-year gain, up from 18.9% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February. Phoenix led the way with a 32.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 32.6% increase and Miami with a 29.7% increase. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending February 2022 versus the year ending January 2022.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.7% month-over-month increase in February, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.4%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.9%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively.
In February, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS
"U.S. home prices continued to advance at a very rapid pace in February," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "The National Composite Index recorded a gain of 19.8% for the 12 months ended February 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 18.6% and 20.2%, respectively. All three composites reflect an acceleration of price growth relative to January's level.
"The National Composite's 19.8% year-over-year change for February was the third-highest reading in 35 years of history. That level of price growth suggests broad strength in the housing market, which is exactly what we continue to observe. All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in February, and price growth in all 20 cities accelerated relative to January's report. February's price increase ranked in the top quartile of historical experience for every city, and in the top decile for 18 of them.
"Phoenix's 32.9% price increase led all cities for the 33rd consecutive month, with Tampa (+32.6%) and Miami (+29.7%) close behind. Prices were strongest in the South (+28.1%) and Southeast (+27.9%), but every region continued to show impressive gains.
"The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. The post-COVID resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak
|
Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 133.99 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 286.68 | 114.0% | 55.3% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 296.35 | 121.0% | 43.5% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 308.45 | 110.6% | 36.3% |
