YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.5% annual gain in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.8%, down from 18.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 19.1% year-over-year gain, down from 19.6% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in September. Phoenix led the way with a 33.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 27.7% increase and Miami with a 25.2% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2021 versus the year ending August 2021.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.0% month-over-month increase in September, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8% and 1.0%, respectively. In September, 19 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS
"If I had to choose only one word to describe September 2021's housing price data, the word would be 'deceleration,' says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Housing prices continued to show remarkable strength in September, though the pace of price increases declined slightly. The National Composite Index rose 19.5% from year-ago levels, with the 10- and 20-City Composites up 17.8% and 19.1%, respectively. This month, however, the rate of price growth began to decline, as each of our three composites rose less in September than in August.
"We also saw very strong price growth at the city level. All 20 cities saw price increases in September, and all 20 cities stand at their all-time highs. September's price increase ranked in the top quintile of historical experience for all 20 cities, and in the top decile for 17 of them. That said, in 14 of 20 cities, prices decelerated – i.e., increased by less in September than in August.
"Phoenix's 33.1% increase led all cities for the 28th consecutive month. Tampa (+27.7%) rose to second place in September, and Miami (+25.2%) edged out Dallas, San Diego, and Las Vegas for the bronze medal. Prices were strongest in the South (+24.3%) and the Sunbelt (+24.2%), but every region logged double-digit gains.
"We have previously suggested that the strength in the U.S. housing market is being driven by households' reaction to the COVID pandemic, as potential buyers move from urban apartments to suburban homes. More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge represents simply an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years, or reflects a secular change in locational preferences. September's report is consistent with either explanation."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index |
Level |
Date |
Level |
Date | From Peak (%) |
Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.61 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 271.18 | 102.4% | 46.9% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 277.24 | 106.8% | 34.2% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 289.20 | 97.5% | 27.8% |
