YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in September, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, no change from the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.1% year-over-year gain, up from 2.0% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Charlotte and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In September, Phoenix led the way with a 6.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Charlotte with a 4.6% increase and Tampa with a 4.5% increase. Ten of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending September 2019 versus the year ending August 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in September. The 10-City Composite did not post any gains and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.4% month-over-month increase in September. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% increase and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.4% increase. In September, 12 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment while 17 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"September's report for the U.S. housing market is reassuring," says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "The national composite index rose 3.2% relative to year-ago levels, with smaller increases in our 10- and 20-city composites. Of the 20 cities in the composite, only one (San Francisco) saw a year-over-year price decline in September.
"After a long period of decelerating price increases, it's notable that in September both the national and 20-city composite indices rose at a higher rate than in August, while the 10-city index's September rise matched its August performance. It is, of course, too soon to say whether this month marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend.
"At a regional level, Phoenix retains the top spot for the fourth consecutive month with September's 6.0% year-over-year gain. The Southeast region was also strong, as Charlotte, Tampa, and Atlanta all rose at greater than a 4.0% clip."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 212.20 | 58.4% | 14.9% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.27 | 62.8% | 5.7% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 230.89 | 57.7% | 2.0% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for September 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| Sep 2019 | Sep/Aug | Aug/Jul | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 154.03 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 4.0% |
| Boston | 223.78 | -0.4% | 0.1% | 3.5% |
| Charlotte | 165.90 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.6% |
| Chicago | 145.81 | -0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Cleveland | 128.43 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3.2% |
| Dallas | 193.07 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Denver | 223.22 | 0.0% | -0.2% | 3.0% |
| Detroit | 129.25 | -0.1% | 0.0% | 3.6% |
| Las Vegas | 194.74 | 0.2% | -0.2% | 2.9% |
| Los Angeles | 287.36 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| Miami | 245.66 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.1% |
| Minneapolis | 180.85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 4.2% |
| New York | 201.93 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| Phoenix | 196.64 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 6.0% |
| Portland | 241.28 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| San Diego | 263.26 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 2.8% |
| San Francisco | 267.16 | -0.6% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| Seattle | 254.60 | -0.3% | -0.3% | 1.7% |
| Tampa | 222.16 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 4.5% |
| Washington | 234.03 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Composite-10 | 230.89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| Composite-20 | 218.27 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| U.S. National | 212.20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through September 2019 |
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