YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in July, remaining the same from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.6%, down from 1.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain, down from 2.2% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Las Vegas and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Phoenix led the way with a 5.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with a 4.7% increase, and Charlotte with a 4.6% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2019 versus the year ending June 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.4% in July. The 10-City Composite remained flat and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.1% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.1% month-over-month increase in July. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease and the 20-City Composite did not report any gains. In July, 15 of 20 cities reported increases both before and after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Year-over-year home prices continued to gain, but at ever more modest rates," says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Charlotte surpassed Tampa to join the top three cities, and Seattle may be turning around from its recent negative streak of YOY price changes, improving from -1.3% in June to -0.06% in July.
"Overall, leadership remains in the southwest (Phoenix and Las Vegas) and southeast (Charlotte and Tampa). Other pockets of relative strength include Minneapolis, which increased its YOY gain to 4.2%, and Detroit, which is closely behind at 4.1% YOY. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both experienced lower YOY price gains than last month, declining to 1.6% and 2.0% respectively. However, the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index remained steady with a YOY price gain of 3.2%, the same as prior month. Home price gains remained positive in low single digits in most cities, and other fundamentals indicate renewed housing demand. According to the National Association of Realtors, the YOY change in existing home sales was positive in July for the first time in a number of months, and housing supply tightened since peaking in June."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
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| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak
| Level | From Trough
| From Peak
|
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 211.72 | 58.0% | 14.7% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 218.00 | 62.6% | 5.6% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 230.74 | 57.6% | 2.0% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for July 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
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| July 2019 | July/June | June/May | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 153.45 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 4.0% |
| Boston | 224.58 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| Charlotte | 165.19 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 4.6% |
| Chicago | 146.99 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% |
| Cleveland | 127.41 | 1.1% | 0.8% | 3.2% |
| Dallas | 192.54 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.7% |
| Denver | 223.78 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.1% |
| Detroit | 129.22 | 0.2% | 1.3% | 4.1% |
| Las Vegas | 194.81 | 0.7% | 0.5% | 4.7% |
| Los Angeles | 286.18 | -0.3% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| Miami | 244.09 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.7% |
| Minneapolis | 180.50 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 4.2% |
| New York | 200.57 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.9% |
| Phoenix | 194.06 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 5.8% |
| Portland | 241.29 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| San Diego | 263.58 | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| San Francisco | 270.21 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Seattle | 256.13 | 0.2% | 0.6% | -0.6% |
| Tampa | 219.85 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.5% |
| Washington | 234.65 | -0.1% | 0.5% | 2.7% |
| Composite-10 | 230.74 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| Composite-20 | 218.00 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
| U.S. National | 211.72 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 3.2% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic |
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| Data through July 2019 |
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