YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual gain in May, down from 3.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.2%, down from 2.3% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.4% year-over-year gain, down from 2.5% in the previous month.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In May, Las Vegas led the way with a 6.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with a 5.7% increase, and Tampa with a 5.1% increase. Seven of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending May 2019 versus the year ending April 2019.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.8% in May. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.5% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.6% increase for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in May. The 10-City and the 20-City Composites both reported a 0.1% increase. In May, 19 of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 13 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
"Nationally, year-over-year home price gains were lower in May than in April, but not dramatically so and a broad-based moderation continued," says Philip Murphy, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Among 20 major U.S. city home price indices, the average YOY gain has been declining for the past year or so and now stands at the moderate nominal YOY rate of 3.1%.
"Though home price gains seem generally sustainable for the time being, there are significant variations between YOY rates of change in individual cities. Seattle's home price index is now 1.2% lower than it was in May 2018, the first negative YOY change recorded in a major city in a number of years. On the other hand, Las Vegas and Phoenix, while cooler than they were during 2018, remain quite strong at 6.4% and 5.7% YOY gains, respectively. Whether negative YOY rates of change spread to other cities remains to be seen; for now, there is still substantial diversity in local trends. Nationally, increasing housing supply points to somewhat weakened demand, but the fact that seven cities experienced stronger YOY price gains in May than they did in April suggests an underlying resiliency that may mitigate the risk of overshooting to the downside at the national level."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
| 2006 Peak | 2012 Trough | Current | |||||
Index | Level | Date | Level | Date | From Peak (%) | Level | From Trough (%) | From Peak (%) |
National | 184.62 | Jul-06 | 134.00 | Feb-12 | -27.4% | 209.66 | 56.5% | 13.6% |
20-City | 206.52 | Jul-06 | 134.07 | Mar-12 | -35.1% | 216.94 | 61.8% | 5.0% |
10-City | 226.29 | Jun-06 | 146.45 | Mar-12 | -35.3% | 230.12 | 57.1% | 1.7% |
Table 2 below summarizes the results for May 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.
|
| May 2019 | May/April | April/March | 1-Year |
| Metropolitan Area | Level | Change (%) | Change (%) | Change (%) |
| Atlanta | 152.68 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 4.7% |
| Boston | 221.92 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.6% |
| Charlotte | 163.83 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 4.5% |
| Chicago | 145.44 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Cleveland | 124.98 | 1.4% | 0.7% | 3.6% |
| Dallas | 191.26 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 2.6% |
| Denver | 222.76 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.6% |
| Detroit | 127.30 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 4.0% |
| Las Vegas | 192.66 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 6.4% |
| Los Angeles | 286.73 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| Miami | 242.95 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.3% |
| Minneapolis | 177.14 | 1.7% | 0.9% | 3.6% |
| New York | 200.93 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Phoenix | 191.09 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 5.7% |
| Portland | 238.14 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% |
| San Diego | 260.17 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| San Francisco | 269.59 | 0.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Seattle | 254.12 | 1.0% | 1.1% | -1.2% |
| Tampa | 218.53 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 5.1% |
| Washington | 233.74 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.9% |
| Composite-10 | 230.12 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 2.2% |
| Composite-20 | 216.94 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% |
| U.S. National | 209.66 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 3.4% |
| Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic | ||||
| Data through May 2019 | ||||
